SBP to Hold 11% Rates, Cuts Delayed to 2026

KARACHI: SBP is poised to hold the line at 11% on Monday, a Reuters poll confirms, as analysts slam brakes on rate-cut dreams till late 2026 — IMF blasts “premature easing” amid lingering inflation ghosts. All 12 experts see no chop; majority peg CPI at 6–8% short-term, spiking later on fading bases and flood-fueled food/transport chaos. IMF’s second review demands tight, data-driven policy to nail expectations and rebuild buffers — positive real rates stay sacred. SBP has frozen since September after 1,100 bps slash (Jun24–May25) tamed 40% peak. November CPI at 6.1% (vs 5–7% target) — IMF eyes 8–10% surge this year. Rupee fragility + $1.2B IMF cash this week can’t mask external tremors; Arif Habib warns demand spikes could torch reserves.