Fuel Prices Set to Rise from February 1

Petroleum product prices are projected to increase with effect from February 1, 2026, with significant upward revisions expected for high-speed diesel (HSD), kerosene oil, and light diesel oil, while petrol is likely to witness a marginal reduction, based on prevailing pricing estimates.

According to projections for the forthcoming fortnight, the anticipated adjustments are driven by trends in the international oil market and exchange rate movements. Officials clarified that international price data for the last two days has not yet been factored into the calculations; however, this omission is not expected to materially alter the final price outcomes.

At the ex-refinery level, the price of high-speed diesel is projected to increase by Rs 9.47 per litre, rising from Rs 154.64 to Rs 164.11. Kerosene oil is expected to register an increase of Rs 3.69 per litre, moving from Rs 141.60 to Rs 145.29, while light diesel oil is projected to rise by Rs 6.95 per litre, from Rs 124.64 to Rs 131.59.

In contrast, petrol is projected to record a marginal decline of 36 paisa per litre, easing from Rs 141.00 to Rs 140.64 at the ex-refinery level.

The impact on consumers is expected to be more pronounced at the ex-depot level, particularly in the case of diesel, which holds critical importance for the broader economy. The ex-depot sale price of high-speed diesel is projected to rise by Rs 9.47 per litre to Rs 266.55, compared to the existing price of Rs 257.08. Given diesel’s extensive use in transportation, agriculture, and power generation, the increase is likely to translate into higher freight charges, increased food prices, and broader inflationary pressures.

Kerosene oil, which is predominantly used by lower-income households for cooking and lighting, particularly in remote and off-grid areas, is projected to increase by Rs 3.69 per litre, taking the ex-depot price to Rs 174.57 from Rs 170.88. This increase is expected to further exacerbate cost-of-living pressures for vulnerable segments of the population.

Light diesel oil, commonly used in industrial boilers, generators, and agricultural machinery, is expected to rise by Rs 6.95 per litre, increasing its ex-depot price to Rs 153.13 from Rs 146.18. Higher LDO prices are likely to elevate operating costs for small industries and farms dependent on diesel-powered equipment.

Petrol, which is primarily consumed by private vehicles and motorcycles and directly affects urban commuters, is projected to decline marginally by 36 paisa per litre, bringing its ex-depot price down to Rs 252.81 from Rs 253.17. However, the nominal reduction is unlikely to provide meaningful relief amid rising prices of other petroleum products.

Despite the exclusion of the most recent two days’ international price data, industry sources indicated that the projected figures remain broadly stable, signalling that consumers should prepare for higher fuel costs from the beginning of February, particularly due to the sharp increase in diesel prices and its cascading impact on the economy.