Pakistan’s Annual SPI Inflation Climbs To 11.92%

Pakistan’s short-term inflation increased 0.99% week-on-week (WoW) during the week ended September 24, as electricity charges for the lowest consumption quintile jumped 18.76%. Annual inflation measured through the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) also rose to 11.92%.

According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data, prices of 20 out of the 51 essential items monitored under the SPI increased during the week, while 10 declined and 21 remained unchanged. This accounted for 39.21%, 19.61% and 41.18% of the basket, respectively.

The combined SPI climbed to 369.69 from 366.05 a week earlier and 330.32 during the corresponding week last year. This represented a 0.99% weekly and 11.92% annual increase. The SPI, based on 2015-16, tracks prices of 51 essential commodities across 50 markets in 17 cities.

Electricity charges for Q1 posted the largest weekly increase, rising 18.76% as the average rate reached Rs7.66 per unit from Rs6.45 previously. The rate was Rs4.83 per unit a year earlier, resulting in a 58.59% year-on-year increase.

Among other items that became more expensive, eggs rose 2.02%, garlic 1.57%, LPG 1.55%, pulse masoor 0.75%, chicken 0.72%, washing soap 0.59%, pulse gram 0.34%, mutton 0.31%, beef 0.30%, curd 0.27%, fresh milk 0.14% and wheat flour 0.11%.

Smaller increases were recorded in toilet soap at 0.89%, bread at 0.07%, prepared tea at 0.06%, cooked beef at 0.05%, pulse moong at 0.05%, powdered milk at 0.05% and pulse mash at 0.02%.

The average price of a dozen eggs increased to Rs257.66 from Rs252.56, while garlic rose to Rs388.61 per kg from Rs382.62. The price of an 11.67kg LPG cylinder increased to Rs5,044.23 from Rs4,967.05, while chicken rose to Rs340.63 per kg from Rs338.18.

Pulse masoor increased to Rs263.72 per kg from Rs261.75, mutton to Rs2,399.22 per kg from Rs2,391.85 and beef with bone to Rs1,274 per kg from Rs1,270.24. A 20kg bag of wheat flour also edged up to Rs2,689.61 from Rs2,686.59.

The overall increase was partly moderated by falling prices of several food items. Tomatoes posted the biggest weekly decline at 13.45%, followed by potatoes at 8.33%, bananas at 5.66% and onions at 2.42%.

Diesel prices fell 1.57%, while powdered salt declined 0.90%, petrol 0.34%, sugar 0.23%, mustard oil 0.04% and gur 0.01%.

The average price of tomatoes dropped to Rs152.34 per kg from Rs176.02, potatoes to Rs51.09 from Rs55.73, bananas to Rs140.79 per dozen from Rs149.24 and onions to Rs188.68 per kg from Rs193.36.

High-speed diesel declined to Rs416.84 per litre from Rs423.47, while petrol fell to Rs392.07 from Rs393.41. Sugar prices edged down to Rs145.05 per kg from Rs145.38.

Despite the weekly declines in several commodities, annual price pressures remained significantly higher. SPI inflation reached 11.92% year-on-year, with onions recording the largest annual increase at 115.98%.

LPG prices were 63.97% higher than a year earlier, followed by Q1 electricity charges at 58.59%, diesel at 51.80%, petrol at 47.49% and wheat flour at 32.41%.

Other notable annual increases included gents sponge chappal at 16.69%, chilli powder at 16.37%, mutton at 15.75%, beef at 13.22%, firewood at 10.72%, plain bread at 8.96%, shirting at 8.38%, washing soap at 8.36% and fresh milk at 8.10%.

However, several commodities remained cheaper compared with the same period last year. Potato prices declined 39.21%, sugar 21.14%, tomatoes 19.81%, eggs 18.40%, powdered salt 14.73%, pulse gram 11.65% and pulse masoor 10.47%.

Pulse moong prices fell 7.89% year-on-year, gur 7.30%, IRRI-6/9 rice 3.28%, garlic 3.03%, chicken 2.51% and broken basmati rice 0.33%.

Inflation also differed across income groups. The lowest expenditure group, with monthly spending of up to Rs17,732, recorded a 0.85% weekly increase and 9.69% annual rise, taking its SPI to 354.06.

For households spending Rs17,733-Rs22,888 per month, the SPI rose 1.28% WoW and 11.37% YoY to 357.40. The Rs22,889-Rs29,517 group saw increases of 0.81% and 9.85%, respectively, with its index reaching 377.88.

The SPI for the Rs29,518-Rs44,175 group stood at 365.21, showing a 0.62% weekly and 10.20% annual increase. For the highest expenditure group, with monthly spending above Rs44,175, the index reached 369.45, up 0.85% WoW and 12.31% YoY — the highest annual increase among the five groups.

The 0.99% weekly increase in the combined SPI was also higher than the 0.49% rise recorded in the previous week. Over the past 10 weeks, the index increased from 360.88 on July 23 to 369.69 on September 24, while annual inflation accelerated from 9.66% to 11.92%.