Fuel Prices to Rise from July 1, 2025

Islamabad, June 28, 2025 — Fuel prices in Pakistan are poised for a moderate increase from July 1, 2025, fueled by a surge in international oil rates, though a mid-month decline could follow if global prices ease, per a fuel pricing outlook by Arif Habib Limited (AHL). Gas Oil (diesel) prices soared 10.3% to $87.18 per barrel (from $79.05) between June 16 and June 30, while Gasoline (petrol) rose 5.8% to $78.42 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Crude prices—WTI (5.2%), Brent (6.9%), and Arablight (7.0%)—also climbed in late June, though a ceasefire on June 24 sparked a 0.6% dip in diesel and 6.6% in petrol.

Despite a slight rupee appreciation from 282.41 to 283.63 against the dollar, AHL predicts domestic diesel will jump Rs18.06 per litre to Rs280.65 and petrol by Rs13.86 per litre to Rs272.29 from July 1. A fortnightly review on July 15 could see drops of Rs13.47 per litre for diesel and Rs5.89 for petrol if global trends hold. To ease consumer burden, AHL suggests the government may temporarily cut the petroleum development levy (PDL), capping the hike at Rs4.5 per litre for diesel and Rs8 for petrol, with full levy restoration later. This follows a government announcement of a Rs77 per litre PDL, Rs5 per litre carbon levy on furnace oil, and Rs2.5 per litre charge on petrol and diesel, effective July 1, plus a June 16 hike of Rs4.80 for petrol and Rs7.95 for diesel, setting current prices at Rs258.43 per litre for petrol and Rs262.59 for high-speed diesel (HSD).

Web context confirms rising global oil volatility (e.g., Middle East tensions), while posts found on X reflect public concern—some anticipate price shocks, others question government mitigation. Critically, the narrative of “moderate adjustment” may downplay consumer strain—web data hints at inflation risks, and X sentiment suggests distrust in effective relief, pointing to potential unrest.