FY25 Report Shows 2.7% GDP Growth, Migration Surge

Islamabad, July 01, 2025, 08:01 PM PKT — The Ministry of Finance’s final economic outlook report for FY 2024-25, released on Monday, June 30, paints a complex picture of Pakistan’s economy, with modest growth of 2.7% real GDP, driven by improved macroeconomic indicators, prudent fiscal management, and a 28.8% remittance surge to $34.9 billion in the first 11 months. Yet, independent economists challenge the growth estimate’s accuracy, prompting Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb’s pledge for an expert committee—still unformed. Labour migration spiked, with 59,995 workers registered in May 2025 (up 12.7% from April) and 285,370 leaving January–May, mostly to Saudi Arabia from Punjab, per the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment.

Inflation eased to 3.5% in May, projected at 3-4% in June, with an FY25 average of 4.49% versus 23.41% last year, aided by falling wheat and vegetable prices. However, analysts note no real income gains or job growth. The central bank held the policy rate at 11%, citing inflation risks, external imbalances, and geopolitical uncertainties, drawing criticism for favoring banks over business investment. Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) grew 2.3% year-on-year in April but dropped 3.2% month-on-month, with a 10-month contraction of 1.5%, needing an 8% May-June surge to meet targets.

Positive LSM sectors include textiles, apparel, beverages, pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products. The current account surplus hit $1.8 billion (July–May FY25) from a $1.6 billion deficit last year, boosted by remittances and a 4% export rise to $29.7 billion, though imports up 11.5% to $54.1 billion widened the trade deficit to $24.4 billion. Cotton targets for Kharif 2025–26 aim for 2.2 million hectares and 10.2 million bales after a 31% output drop last year, with better input access.

The ministry vows structural reforms in tax harmonisation, energy pricing, and privatisation, plus climate action, but admits a gap between macroeconomic gains and everyday realities, with worker exodus signaling weak domestic jobs. Web context flags Pakistan’s job scarcity (e.g., 5% unemployment rise, web ID: 0), while posts found on X show skepticism—some note growth, others decry migration. Critically, the narrative of “stability” may mask social strain—web data points to inequality, and X sentiment suggests distrust in inclusive growth, hinting at future challenges.