Inflation Rises to 4.1% YoY in July 2025

Islamabad, August 1, 2025, 08:32 PM PKT — Pakistan’s headline inflation has spiked to 4.1% year-on-year (YoY) in July 2025, up from 3.2% in June, as per data released Friday by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), signaling a sharp shift. On a month-on-month basis, inflation surged 2.9%, contrasting with June’s 0.2% rise and July 2024’s 2.1% increase, though it remains well below July 2024’s 11.09% and the record 38% in May 2023, which has since trended downward. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) aligns with the Finance Ministry’s 3.5-4.5% forecast, driven by stable prices and improved supply.

Urban inflation jumped to 4.4% YoY (from 3.0%) with a 3.4% monthly rise, while rural inflation eased to 3.5% YoY (from 3.6%) with a 2.2% monthly increase. Despite exceeding expectations (e.g., Ismail Iqbal Securities’ 3.1% forecast), the ministry remains optimistic, citing a stronger macroeconomic environment and rising investor confidence for early FY2026 growth. Web context on inflation trends shows past volatility, while posts found on X reflect concern—some note price pressures, others question forecasts. Critically, the narrative of “economic recovery” may mask underlying instability—web data hints at supply risks, and X sentiment suggests distrust in sustained relief, pointing to ongoing challenges.