SBP Forecasts 3.25-4.25% Growth for FY26

Karachi, September 2, 2025, 09:20 PM PKT — State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad has declared a turning point, asserting that Pakistan’s economy stands on a more stable footing, with growth projected at 3.25% to 4.25% in FY2026, as revealed at the annual meeting of the Pakistan Textile Council (PTC) in Karachi, per official reports. Ahmad highlighted unprecedented challenges since 2022, with foreign exchange reserves surging from $2.8 billion in early 2023 to $14.3 billion, a narrowed current account deficit, and remittances hitting $38 billion in FY2025, shifting to formal channels. Inflation plummeted to 3.2% by June 2025, enabling a policy rate cut from 22% to 11%, bolstered by fiscal consolidation, exchange company reforms, and stable external debt.

The governor vowed to maintain stability, build reserves, and keep inflation within 5-7%, but PTC Chairman Fawad Anwar urged immediate policy action to boost export competitiveness, citing high business costs and EFS exclusion of raw materials, a global opportunity at risk. Anwar demanded removal of import duties, a 3–5% refundable sales tax, a uniform 1% duty drawback, and subsidised financing to counter rising wages and energy costs, emphasizing textile and apparel exports as the economic backbone. The meeting concluded with PTC and SBP agreeing on policy dialogue for renewable energy financing and concessional export credit to secure global market share. Web context on economic recovery shows past setbacks, while posts found on X reflect optimism mixed with urgency—some praise stability, others demand export support. Critically, the narrative of “economic stability” may mask structural gaps—web data hints at export challenges, and X sentiment suggests distrust in comprehensive growth, pointing to potential hurdles.