Pakistan Faces Fuel Price Hike from Oct 1

ISLAMABAD: Industry sources project a significant increase in petroleum product prices effective October 1, 2025, driven by rising global crude oil prices and a slight depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar, impacting both ex-refinery and ex-depot rates.

If approved, this price adjustment will intensify financial strain on household budgets, particularly for low- and middle-income families already battling record-high inflation, soaring power tariffs, and escalating food prices.

The ex-refinery price of petrol is expected to rise by Rs1.97 per liter, from Rs160.93 to Rs162.90 (a 1.2% increase), while high-speed diesel (HSD) will increase by Rs2.48 per liter, from Rs172.65 to Rs175.13 (a 1.4% hike). Kerosene oil faces the steepest surge, with a Rs4.66 per liter increase, from Rs151.62 to Rs156.27 (a 3.1% rise). Light diesel oil (LDO) will see a Rs1.76 per liter uptick, moving from Rs141.63 to Rs143.39 (a 1.2% increase).

These refinery-level adjustments will directly elevate ex-depot prices, the retail costs borne by consumers. Petrol’s ex-depot price is projected to increase from Rs264.61 to Rs266.58 (a Rs1.97 per liter, 0.7% rise). Diesel will climb by Rs2.48 per liter, from Rs272.77 to Rs275.25 (a 0.9% hike). Kerosene oil’s ex-depot price will surge by Rs4.65 per liter, from Rs179.96 to Rs184.61 (a 2.6% increase), and LDO will rise from Rs163.42 to Rs165.18 (a Rs1.76 per liter, 1.1% increase).

The diesel price hike is expected to trigger a ripple effect across the economy, as diesel powers freight and public transport, driving up transportation costs and inflating prices of essential goods like vegetables, grains, and other daily necessities.

Kerosene oil, critical for low-income households for cooking and heating, will become costlier, deepening energy poverty among the poorest communities.

Industry sources attribute the price hikes to volatile global crude oil prices, fueled by supply concerns in major oil-producing regions, compounded by the rupee’s depreciation, which increases import costs. OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical risks continue to drive market uncertainty.

“The primary drivers are external,” an industry source noted, emphasizing Pakistan’s limited maneuverability due to its reliance on imports and weak exchange rate.

Industry voices have urged the government to mitigate the impact by adjusting tax rates and petroleum levies to provide relief to citizens.

“This isn’t just a price revision—it’s a matter of survival for millions,” another source stressed, calling for government intervention to avert a worsening crisis.

Asghar Ali, a rickshaw driver from Rawalpindi, lamented, “This increase will crush ordinary people already struggling with electricity bills and basic food costs. Every diesel price hike raises the cost of everything—from bread to bus fares. We’re at our breaking point.”

Petroleum product prices are poised to become a pivotal factor in Pakistan’s inflation outlook, with the October 1 adjustment testing consumer resilience and the government’s response. With inflation already soaring and wages stagnant, the impending fuel price hike threatens to push more households into financial distress, making daily survival increasingly challenging for the masses