CPI Hits 6.2% in October, Floods Fuel Surge

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s headline inflation, tracked via the Consumer Price Index (CPI), surged to 6.2% YoY in October 2025, PBS data unveiled on Monday—overshooting the Ministry of Finance’s 5–6% forecast.

CPI clocked 5.6% in September 2025 and 6.9% in October 2024. MoM, inflation spiked 1.8% versus 2.0% in September and 1.2% last October. Optimus Capital Management flagged this as the highest rate since November 2024.

Urban inflation climbed 6% YoY (vs. 5.5% September, 9.3% October 2024), MoM flat at 1.5%. Rural inflation hit 6.6% YoY (up from 5.8% September, 4.2% October 2024), MoM 2.3% (down from 2.8%).

The Ministry of Finance pinned the uptick on transient flood shocks and border shutdowns disrupting essential commodities, yet insists October stays within 5–6%, with FY2025–26 in target range.

Floods ravaged Punjab since late June 2025, peaking in September. The World Bank forecasts 7.2% inflation in FY2026, easing to 6.8% in FY2027 as food supply, commodities, and exchange rates stabilize.