SPI Update, Mixed Trends in Prices with a Slight Decline for the Week

The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) experienced a slight decrease of 0.04% for the week ending February 13, 2025, reflecting a mixed trend in the prices of essential commodities, according to the latest data.

This decline was mainly driven by price reductions in tomatoes (-8.80%), tea (-4.46%), onions (-3.97%), and pulse gram (-1.91%). Other food items like potatoes, LPG, wheat flour, and basmati rice also saw marginal drops.

However, several items experienced price increases, including bananas (9.37%), chicken (3.62%), eggs (2.38%), and garlic (1.47%). Sugar, mutton, powdered salt, and beef also recorded slight price hikes.

Out of the 51 items tracked by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), 13 saw price increases, 15 declined, and 23 remained unchanged.

On a year-on-year comparison, the SPI rose by 0.98%, with significant price hikes in ladies’ sandals (+75.09%), pulse moong (+29.15%), pulse gram (+27.87%), powdered milk (+25.84%), and beef (+22.75%). Increases in the prices of potatoes, bananas, and garlic were also notable. In contrast, onions (-56.58%), tomatoes (-48%), and wheat flour (-37.18%) led the list of items with the largest annual price drops.

Historical data shows that inflation pressures have eased in recent months. After peaking at 16-17% in mid-October 2024, the SPI has sharply decreased since November, falling below 10% and stabilizing around 2-3% in January 2025.

Despite the recent decline, inflationary expectations remain uncertain, with the State Bank of Pakistan’s monetary policy committee warning that inflation could rise again towards the upper end of the target range by the end of FY25.