Cement Dispatches Drop 28% in June 2025

Islamabad, July 01, 2025, 07:33 PM PKT — Pakistan’s cement sector braces for a staggering 28% month-on-month drop in local dispatches, projected at 2.63 million tons in June 2025, with a 15% year-on-year decline, driven by fewer working days due to Eid holidays. Daily average sales plummeted to 88,000 tons from 118,000 tons in May, with provisional data over 22 days showing 1.75 million tons, and 29-day estimates at 2.5 million tons—well below the 11-month FY25 average of 3.06 million tons, signaling weak demand. The year-on-year dip reflects a high base in June 2024, boosted by advance purchases before a federal excise duty hike from Rs2 to Rs4 per bag.

Cement exports are set to soar 93% year-on-year, though declining 8% month-on-month, with LUCK and ACPL projecting 24% and 54% export growth, while DGKC faces a 56% drop. Total cement sales are estimated at 3.54 million tons, flat year-on-year but down 24% from May, with capacity utilization at 52%—down from 68% in May, matching June 2024. For FY 2024–25, total sales are flat, with local sales down 5% and exports up 30%, while FY26 hints at recovery with improved macroeconomic conditions and lower interest rates.

Retail prices show a 2% month-on-month drop in the North but a 2% rise in the South, with year-on-year increases of 6% in the North and 21% in the South. Web context reveals persistent demand challenges (e.g., 6% local dispatch decline in 8MFY24-25, web ID: 0), while posts found on X reflect concern—some note export gains, others question domestic stagnation. Critically, the narrative of “modest recovery” may mask structural weaknesses—web data points to overcapacity issues, and X sentiment suggests distrust in sustained growth, hinting at underlying fragility.