Load-Shedding Likely Amid Summer Power Crisis

The federal government is formulating a contingency strategy to manage anticipated electricity shortfalls during the summer season, potentially incorporating load-shedding, energy conservation measures, and tariff rationalisation.

According to officials from the Power Division, the proposed framework aims to balance rising electricity demand with constrained fuel availability, particularly shortages of Liquefied Natural Gas and coal, alongside increased costs of alternative energy sources.

Projections indicate that LNG supplies may decline to near-zero levels in the coming months, despite currently contributing over 21% to power generation. Coal availability is also expected to remain limited, with both fuels collectively accounting for approximately 30% of electricity supply.

As a substitute, furnace oil is under consideration; however, its generation cost is significantly higher, estimated at approximately Rs35 per unit, compared to Rs20 for LNG and Rs13.50 for imported coal. Reduced utilisation of LNG-based plants may result in fuel cost adjustments of Rs10–12 per unit, although full cost pass-through to consumers may not be viable.

High-speed diesel, with generation costs exceeding Rs80 per unit, is not being considered due to its economic impracticality and competing demand in key sectors such as transport and agriculture.

Electricity demand during peak summer is projected to reach 27,000–28,000 MW, compared to current peak levels below 14,000 MW, partially due to increased reliance on solar energy reducing baseline grid consumption.

In light of these constraints, authorities are considering implementing daily load-shedding of two to three hours, alongside conservation initiatives and tariff adjustments through existing regulatory mechanisms.

Gas supply to the power sector is also expected to decline significantly, with availability projected at approximately 80 mmcfd from April, compared to 150 mmcfd in March. This may result in the suspension of gas supplies to the CNG sector and partial diversion from fertiliser production to support electricity generation.

Operational challenges, including disruptions in coal transportation involving Pakistan Railways, are further impacting output from key power plants such as Sahiwal Coal Power Plant and Jamshoro Power Plant. These facilities currently generate approximately 1,500–2,000 MW, and any disruption may result in an additional 2.5 to 3 hours of load-shedding if fuel reserves—currently sufficient for only three to seven days—are exhausted.

The government is expected to finalise and implement its strategy in the coming weeks, based on evolving fuel supply conditions and demand projections.