Global Rice Prices May Hit $500 Per Tonne in 2027

International rice prices are expected to increase by approximately 12% in 2027 as El Niño-related adverse weather threatens agricultural production across major Asian exporting countries, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.

The World Bank’s October 2026 report projects that the benchmark Thai 5% rice price will average $448 per metric tonne in 2026, up 9.8% from $408 per tonne in 2025.

Prices are forecast to climb by a further 11.6% to $500 per tonne in 2027 before falling by 6.4% to $468 per tonne in 2028.

The report estimates that global rice production will decrease by 2% during the 2026–27 season, marking the first annual decline in a decade. The projected contraction comes as El Niño disrupts harvests in major Asian rice-exporting countries.

According to the World Bank, El Niño-related weather conditions have already affected rice and sugar planting and harvesting in several producing regions.

The institution has raised its 2027 rice price forecast by 21% compared with its April 2026 projection, reflecting increasing concerns about future supplies.

International rice prices rose by 6% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, as markets reacted to expectations of tighter supplies.

The projected price increases in 2026 and 2027 would be the largest since 2012, excluding the increases recorded in 2020 amid COVID-19-related supply disruptions and in 2023, when export restrictions drove prices sharply higher.

The World Bank’s baseline forecast assumes that major rice-exporting countries will refrain from imposing export restrictions in response to declining production. However, the report warned that restrictions could intensify price pressures, as happened during the 2023–24 El Niño episode.

The unusually strong El Niño is expected to persist into early 2027, raising the risk of significant weather disruptions in agricultural regions.

Floods, droughts and extreme heat could reduce crop yields. Nevertheless, the World Bank expects the overall impact on global food commodity prices to remain manageable under its baseline scenario.

Global food commodity prices are projected to rise by 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027, while grain prices are expected to increase by 9% next year.

The report cautioned that weather disruptions more severe than anticipated could push rice and other agricultural commodity prices beyond current forecasts.

These projections concern international rice prices and global production. The report does not provide separate forecasts for Pakistan’s rice production, domestic prices or export volumes.